Harmony Copper Mine Project Investment Approved, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,840/mt overnight, fluctuated upward after opening to touch a high of $10,949/mt, then moved downward all the way, approaching the tail end to touch a low of $10,810/mt, and finally closed at $10,832.5/mt, a gain of 0.47%, with trading volume reaching 23,000 lots and open interest reaching 329,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 86,750 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 87,200 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to touch a low of 86,250 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 86,350 yuan/mt, a loss of 0.08%, with trading volume reaching 64,000 lots and open interest reaching 203,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 25, Harmony Gold of South Africa said on Monday that its board had approved an investment of $1.55-1.75 billion to develop its copper mine project in Australia after completing an updated feasibility study. As South Africa's largest gold producer, Harmony Gold is diversifying its business into copper. The company said in a statement that the mine is expected to produce approximately 65,000 mt of copper concentrates annually in the first five years after commissioning, and is expected to produce an average of 60,000 mt of copper and 19,000 ounces of gold annually over its 15-year mine life.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 25, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at parity to a premium of 160 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 86,330-86,890 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2512 contract surged straight up, touching a high of 86,780 yuan/mt near 11:00 am, then gave back some gains, and settled at 86,650 yuan/mt in the morning. The inter-month price spread presented C60-C40 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot market transactions are expected to remain deadlocked above parity.

(2) Guangdong: On November 25, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 80-160 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 120 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 10 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,500 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,390 yuan/mt, up 225 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, both inventory and prices rose, but suppliers only slightly lowered premiums, and overall trading was weaker than the previous day.

(3) Imported copper: On November 25, warrant prices were $26-38/mt, QP December, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-54/mt, QP December, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$4/mt to $10/mt, QP December, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in port from mid-to-late November to early December.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on November 25, the futures closing price was 86,650 yuan/mt, up 510 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 80 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 100 yuan/mt. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,400-78,600 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,199 yuan/mt, up 178 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,645 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, the easing of China-US relations and rising expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut pushed copper prices higher. However, transactions in the secondary copper rod market continued to be weak, with mediocre full-day trading.

(5) Inventory: On November 24, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 825 mt to 156,575 mt. On November 21, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 5,193 mt to 49,790 mt.

Price: On the macro front, the US released September retail sales data that fell short of expectations, strengthening market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December. The US dollar index retreated from highs, providing support for copper prices. Additionally, the potential for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement to be reached eased geopolitical risks, also supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply of high-quality copper and SX-EW copper remained tight. On the demand side, downstream procurement sentiment eased somewhat. Overall, copper prices were expected to remain supported today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]